September Jobs Report Commentary from MBA's Mike Fratantoni

The following is MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s reaction to this morning’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment conditions in September.  

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“The job market remained quite strong in September. Not only did the pace of job growth pick up, but the unemployment rate remained steady at a quite low 3.8%. Moreover, job growth numbers for the prior two months were also revised much higher.

“Most of the job growth continues to be concentrated in leisure and hospitality, a sector that is still recovering from the losses incurred during the pandemic.

“Wage growth is cooling somewhat, at 4.2% over the past 12 months, but is still likely too fast to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

 “This report certainly surprised the market, which had been expecting a slowdown and longer-term rates jumped in response. Mortgage rates will follow which will likely mean that lending activity, which was already at a multi-decade low, is not going to pick up anytime soon.”