Chart of the Week
Every Friday, MBA's Chart of the Week provides commentary and analysis on a topic of interest for the industry. This comes from variety of data sources, including proprietary data from MBA's own surveys and studies, as well as from government agencies and other reliable sources of mortgage, housing, and economic data.
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Current Chart of the Week
Commercial mortgage delinquencies increased across all major capital sources in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Commercial Delinquency Report. While overall delinquency rates remain relatively low by historical standards, the increases highlight growing stress in parts of the market, particularly in sectors facing refinancing challenges or weakened fundamentals.
The highest delinquency rate was among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), which rose to 6.42 percent, although this was still well below the peak CMBS delinquency rate of over 10 percent seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020. Bank and thrift-held mortgages saw delinquencies rise to 1.28 percent, compared to their high of 4.4 percent during the Great Financial Crisis. Life insurance companies posted a delinquency rate of 0.47 percent, far below their recession-era peak of around 0.3 percent in 2010, although up slightly from recent lows.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported delinquency rates of 0.63 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively. Both remain significantly below their pandemic-era highs, Fannie Mae peaked at over 1.0 percent in 2021, while Freddie Mac surpassed 0.8 percent during the same period. Although the current levels of delinquencies remain manageable, the consistent upward movement across all capital sources signals a potential turning point in credit performance as the commercial real estate market adjusts to tighter financial conditions and shifting demand across property types.
- Reggie Booker (rbooker@mba.org)