Blog Posts
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Chart of the Week: Estimated Total Commercial Mortgage MaturitiesAt MBA’s CREF Convention in San Diego last month, we released the results of our annual survey of upcoming commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities. The survey collects information directly from loan servicers on when the loans they service mature. As in past years, the numbers we released covered loans held by non-bank lenders—including those guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA, as well as those held by life companies, included in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), made by investor-driven lenders like debt-funds, mortgage REITs, and other credit companies. While the information we collect covers essentially all the loans in those groups, it has typically covered only a sample of loans held by banks. This year’s survey, however, collected information on $400 billion of bank-held commercial and multifamily mortgages—23 percent of the outstanding universe. Using this year’s survey results, for the first time we are expanding our loan maturity analysis to include an estimate of the maturity profile of all commercial and multifamily mortgages—including the more than $1.7 trillion on bank balance sheets.
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2022 Q3 Quarterly Databook
The US economy, and thus commercial real estate markets, are facing a period of uncertainty as the Federal Reserve continues to signal it will do everything in its power to bring down inflation. Using short-term rates as their hammer, the Fed is sifting through economic data to try to gauge how high rates will have to go and how long they will have to stay there to tame price growth. Both the Fed and market participants are also working through what damage those actions are likely to cause to the economy. The impacts on commercial real estate markets are likely only beginning to show up.
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MBA CREF Forecast - January 2023
At the end of 2021, the typical (median) member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee expected the Fed Funds rate to end 2023 at 1.6 percent. In June 2022 that figure had risen to 3.8 percent. In December 2022 it had risen again, to 5.1 percent. Those shifts in outlook from the Fed are both a response to changing economic conditions as well as a cause of change themselves. And commercial real estate markets are not immune to either, with uncertainty – and volatility – around the paths of the economy, interest rates and property valuations all causing significant instability for the market.