Blog Posts
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Chart of the Week: Estimated Total Commercial Mortgage MaturitiesAt MBA’s CREF Convention in San Diego last month, we released the results of our annual survey of upcoming commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities. The survey collects information directly from loan servicers on when the loans they service mature. As in past years, the numbers we released covered loans held by non-bank lenders—including those guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA, as well as those held by life companies, included in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), made by investor-driven lenders like debt-funds, mortgage REITs, and other credit companies. While the information we collect covers essentially all the loans in those groups, it has typically covered only a sample of loans held by banks. This year’s survey, however, collected information on $400 billion of bank-held commercial and multifamily mortgages—23 percent of the outstanding universe. Using this year’s survey results, for the first time we are expanding our loan maturity analysis to include an estimate of the maturity profile of all commercial and multifamily mortgages—including the more than $1.7 trillion on bank balance sheets.
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2022 Q3 Quarterly Databook
The US economy, and thus commercial real estate markets, are facing a period of uncertainty as the Federal Reserve continues to signal it will do everything in its power to bring down inflation. Using short-term rates as their hammer, the Fed is sifting through economic data to try to gauge how high rates will have to go and how long they will have to stay there to tame price growth. Both the Fed and market participants are also working through what damage those actions are likely to cause to the economy. The impacts on commercial real estate markets are likely only beginning to show up.
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MBA CREF Forecast - January 2023
At the end of 2021, the typical (median) member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee expected the Fed Funds rate to end 2023 at 1.6 percent. In June 2022 that figure had risen to 3.8 percent. In December 2022 it had risen again, to 5.1 percent. Those shifts in outlook from the Fed are both a response to changing economic conditions as well as a cause of change themselves. And commercial real estate markets are not immune to either, with uncertainty – and volatility – around the paths of the economy, interest rates and property valuations all causing significant instability for the market.
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Chart of the Week: Select Indexes of Housing CostsHousing costs are – appropriately – getting a lot of attention. Part of that attention stems from affordability challenges heightened by recent rapid increases in home prices, interest rates, and rents. Another part stems from the fact that shelter costs are such a significant driver of measures of inflation, and thus a key motivator of Federal Reserve policies. In this week’s Chart of the Week, we examine selected indices of housing costs. Until recently, various gauges of housing costs moved more or less in unison. These include: a) Asking rents, like those tracked by Zillow and the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), b) In-place rents, like those followed by the consumer price index (CPI) for rents and for owners’ equivalent rents (OER), and c) Mortgage principal and interests (P&I) payments, like those tracked by MBA’s Purchase Application Payment Index (PAPI).
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2020 Q4 Quarterly DatabookThe US economy continued to rebound during the fourth quarter of 2020 but did so at a slower pace than Q3 of 2020 or what is expected to be recorded in Q1 2021.
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A Post-Pandemic World: Getting from Here to There -- Trepp Year-end MagazineWhen the Covid-19 pandemic hit the United States in March, it raised two fundamental questions for owners, lenders and others involved in commercial real estate: a) How would properties get through the pandemic and recession and b) What would the "new normal" be for the sector post-pandemic? One thing became crystal clear early on - the answers to those two questions would vary dramatically by property type.